Quantifying the unfairness of the 2018 FIFA World Cup qualification

This paper investigates the fairness of 2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying competition via Monte Carlo simulations. The probabilities are calculated for 102 nations, all teams except African and European countries. A method is proposed to quantify degree unfairness. Although qualifications within four confederations constructed fairly, serious differences found between continents: instance, a South American team could have tripled its chances by playing in Asia. Choosing fixed matchup inter-continental play-offs instead current random draw can reduce unfairness competition. move Australia from Oceanian Asian zone shown increase probability participating about 65%. Our results provide important insights administrators on how reallocate berths.